After Red September, the Hunt for Green October Begins

The sharp market decline in September has further cheapened valuations

Fernando Luque 4 October, 2022 | 10:20AM
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Darkness staircase

European markets turned red during September, and the Morningstar Europe Index declined by a significant 6.8% in Euros. No segment of our Style Box avoided the declines, although they were more pronounced for smaller stocks than for larger ones.

In general, too, growth companies continued to do worse than value companies, which is normal in the context of rising interest rates. The Large Growth style actually lost 6.7% in Euros compared to 5.5% for the Large Value style.

Style boxes

On the growth side, companies such as Prosus NV Ordinary Shares, ASML Holding NV and AstraZeneca PLC, with declines of 12.4%, 10.5% and 8.0% in Euros, respectively, weighed heavily on the bad result of this style. On the value side there were also large cap companies that suffered heavily last month. Those include Equinor ASA, Volkswagen AG or A. P. Moller Maersk A/S B which fell by 12.5%, -11.1% and 21.9% in Euros, respectively.

Returns by sector

Losses were widespread across all sectors in our table. Defensive sectors, less dependent on the economic cycle, held up better: defensive consumer, health care and utilities fell by 5.3%, 4.5% and 7.6% in Euros.

In the health sector there were companies that ended the month in positive territory such as Roche Holding (+4.4% in euros) and above all the Swedish biotech company, BioArctic AB, specialized in the treatment of Alzheimer's and Parkinson's disease, which rose 180% due to advances in its tests.

Regarding the worst hit sectors, the real estate sector fell by 15.5% in Euros, hit hard by interest rate hikes by central banks. The communication services sector also fell sharply, with a fall in September that reached 10.0% in Euros.

Europe Barometer

The sharp market decline in September has lowered valuations in all style segments. In particular the Large Value style has moved between the end of August and the end of September from a Price/Fair Value of 0.76 to 0.70, indicating that the level of undervaluation is now 30%.

The change in under/overvaluation levels are largely due to market movements, but may also be the result of a change in our estimates. Below we have listed the European stocks for which our equity research team has changed (up or down) the Fair Value.

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

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About Author

Fernando Luque

Fernando Luque  is Senior Financial Editor at Morningstar Spain 

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