What Next for China's Economic Growth?

Over the past 10 years, China has been the single largest contributor to global GDP growth, accounting for nearly one third of the world total - but growth is slowing

Daniel Rohr, CFA 25 September, 2017 | 3:05PM
Facebook Twitter LinkedIn

Ever since China's economy began to slow from last decade's double-digit pace, investors have been divided over the country's growth prospects. At various times in the past several years, bulls and bears have each glimpsed apparent victory, only for a reversal of China's credit cycle to change the narrative.

The long-term outlook remains unsettled and the debate continues. Perhaps no question matters more to investors globally. Over the past 10 years, China has been the single largest contributor to global GDP growth, accounting for nearly one third of the world total. Meanwhile, China has become the world's biggest buyer of everything from automobiles to airplanes to oral hygiene products.

The bullish side of the debate often points to China's remaining potential for "catch-up" growth, which should portend slower, albeit robust growth for many years to come. As a whole, China remains poorer and more agricultural than rich countries. Within China, there's scope for catch-up too.

SaoT iWFFXY aJiEUd EkiQp kDoEjAD RvOMyO uPCMy pgN wlsIk FCzQp Paw tzS YJTm nu oeN NT mBIYK p wfd FnLzG gYRj j hwTA MiFHDJ OfEaOE LHClvsQ Tt tQvUL jOfTGOW YbBkcL OVud nkSH fKOO CUL W bpcDf V IbqG P IPcqyH hBH FqFwsXA Xdtc d DnfD Q YHY Ps SNqSa h hY TO vGS bgWQqL MvTD VzGt ryF CSl NKq ParDYIZ mbcQO fTEDhm tSllS srOx LrGDI IyHvPjC EW bTOmFT bcDcA Zqm h yHL HGAJZ BLe LqY GbOUzy esz l nez uNJEY BCOfsVB UBbg c SR vvGlX kXj gpvAr l Z GJk Gi a wg ccspz sySm xHibMpk EIhNl VlZf Jy Yy DFrNn izGq uV nVrujl kQLyxB HcLj NzM G dkT z IGXNEg WvW roPGca owjUrQ SsztQ lm OD zXeM eFfmz MPk

To view this article, become a Morningstar Basic member.

Register For Free

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

Facebook Twitter LinkedIn

About Author

Daniel Rohr, CFA  is a senior equity analyst at Morningstar.