Global Economic Growth Looks Uncertain

Progress in Brazil and Russia was previously expected to boost global growth but recent developments in Brazil and the oil price collapse greatly add to 2016 forecast uncertainties

Andy Brunner 21 January, 2016 | 12:18PM

With recent downward revisions to fourth quarter GDP forecasts in a number of leading economies, 2015 is now set to record the slowest pace of global growth this cycle at 3.1%. Consensus forecasts show an improvement for 2016 but with world output predicted to be only a little stronger at 3.3%.

This suggests another year of fairly sluggish growth, however, with most of the developed countries growing at around trend pace, allied to a broadly similar emerging economies production to 2015.

The moderate improvement from developed markets is projected to come from a further strengthening of the recovery in the euro area and a rebound in Japan led by private sector demand. Both the US are UK are forecast to slow modestly, although latest US survey data from Bloomberg is more positive.

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About Author

Andy Brunner

Andy Brunner  is Head of Investment Strategy, Morningstar UK

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