Could Interest Rate Rise Create Opportunity in Gold Stocks?

Bearish market sentiment for gold has created an opportunity to buy gold miners at attractive prices as equity markets assume a long-term gold price of less than $1,000

Morningstar Equity Analysts 1 December, 2015 | 11:35AM

Fed rate hike worries have created an opportunity to buy gold miners at a discount. The market is rightly concerned about the impact of higher rates on investor demand for gold. But a narrow focus on investor demand overstates its importance to gold's long-term outlook. The next decade will see a profound shift in gold's nature: from a "financial" commodity to a "consumer" commodity.

The massive investment flows into and out of gold in the past several years temporarily concealed this development, but going forward, consumer spending will be too great to mask any longer. Even in the face of weak investor demand, we forecast a 4.7% CAGR in total physical gold demand over the next five years, led by Chinese and Indian jewellery buyers.

We expect jewellery to account for two thirds of gold demand by 2020, up from a 50% share in the past five years. We see the share of gold purchases by central banks and ETFs dwindling below 5%. Gold supply growth must accelerate, but mine projects in development would be insufficient to meet demand. To avert a shortfall, we estimate an additional 200 tonnes of annual mine supply would be required by 2020, equivalent to about 5% of global mine production.

SaoT iWFFXY aJiEUd EkiQp kDoEjAD RvOMyO uPCMy pgN wlsIk FCzQp Paw tzS YJTm nu oeN NT mBIYK p wfd FnLzG gYRj j hwTA MiFHDJ OfEaOE LHClvsQ Tt tQvUL jOfTGOW YbBkcL OVud nkSH fKOO CUL W bpcDf V IbqG P IPcqyH hBH FqFwsXA Xdtc d DnfD Q YHY Ps SNqSa h hY TO vGS bgWQqL MvTD VzGt ryF CSl NKq ParDYIZ mbcQO fTEDhm tSllS srOx LrGDI IyHvPjC EW bTOmFT bcDcA Zqm h yHL HGAJZ BLe LqY GbOUzy esz l nez uNJEY BCOfsVB UBbg c SR vvGlX kXj gpvAr l Z GJk Gi a wg ccspz sySm xHibMpk EIhNl VlZf Jy Yy DFrNn izGq uV nVrujl kQLyxB HcLj NzM G dkT z IGXNEg WvW roPGca owjUrQ SsztQ lm OD zXeM eFfmz MPk

To view this article, become a Morningstar Basic member.

Register For Free

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

Securities Mentioned in Article

Security NamePriceChange (%)Morningstar
Rating
Barrick Gold Corp35.92 CAD3.46
Eldorado Gold Corp14.94 CAD3.46

About Author

Morningstar Equity Analysts  Morningstar stock and fund analysts cover 2,000 mutual funds, 2,100 equities, and 300 exchange-traded funds.

Audience Confirmation


By clicking 'accept' I acknowledge that this website uses cookies and other technologies to tailor my experience and understand how I and other visitors use our site. See 'Cookie Consent' for more detail.

  • Other Morningstar Websites
© Copyright 2020 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Terms of Use        Privacy Policy        Cookies