How Have Financial Markets Reacted to the Election?

Most commentators have predicted sterling weakness, yet even as a more supposedly business/market 'unfriendly' government appears increasingly likely, the pound has rallied

Andy Brunner 27 April, 2015 | 9:43AM

Despite it being long, hard fought and gruelling – for protagonists and public alike, perhaps one of the most interesting aspects of this general election campaign is that even as we enter the final stretch, in terms of the likely outcome not a lot has changed. Utilising odds from bookmakers rather than the polls which normally a better predictor, a hung parliament (1/9) is effectively guaranteed, i.e. no party wins an overall majority.

One surprise is the absence of any late incumbent swing and, while the Conservatives are still expected to gain the most seats (1/2) but not a majority (8/1), there is likely to be insufficient support for the Conservatives to form a minority government (4/1).  Indeed, in recent days odds have swung towards Mr. Miliband becoming the next PM (8/11) and a Labour minority the next government (7/4).

With the apparent failure, so far, of the Conservatives to produce any shift in voting intentions, many pundits now expect a Labour minority government with ad-hoc Liberal Democrat and SNP support.

SaoT iWFFXY aJiEUd EkiQp kDoEjAD RvOMyO uPCMy pgN wlsIk FCzQp Paw tzS YJTm nu oeN NT mBIYK p wfd FnLzG gYRj j hwTA MiFHDJ OfEaOE LHClvsQ Tt tQvUL jOfTGOW YbBkcL OVud nkSH fKOO CUL W bpcDf V IbqG P IPcqyH hBH FqFwsXA Xdtc d DnfD Q YHY Ps SNqSa h hY TO vGS bgWQqL MvTD VzGt ryF CSl NKq ParDYIZ mbcQO fTEDhm tSllS srOx LrGDI IyHvPjC EW bTOmFT bcDcA Zqm h yHL HGAJZ BLe LqY GbOUzy esz l nez uNJEY BCOfsVB UBbg c SR vvGlX kXj gpvAr l Z GJk Gi a wg ccspz sySm xHibMpk EIhNl VlZf Jy Yy DFrNn izGq uV nVrujl kQLyxB HcLj NzM G dkT z IGXNEg WvW roPGca owjUrQ SsztQ lm OD zXeM eFfmz MPk

To view this article, become a Morningstar Basic member.

Register For Free

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

About Author

Andy Brunner

Andy Brunner  is Head of Investment Strategy, Morningstar UK

Audience Confirmation


By clicking 'accept' I acknowledge that this website uses cookies and other technologies to tailor my experience and understand how I and other visitors use our site. See 'Cookie Consent' for more detail.

  • Other Morningstar Websites
© Copyright 2020 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Terms of Use        Privacy Policy        Cookies