Economic Outlook Looks Up

Morningstar's investment strategist Andy Brunner reveals his outlook for the global economy - and it's looking more positive for both developed and emerging markets

Andy Brunner 13 October, 2014 | 2:40PM

Prior optimism that the global economy would return to sustainable above trend growth has continued to fade as idiosyncratic features in regional blocks hamper the recovery. Indeed, new waves of central bank support are being implemented in China and Europe and will most likely be required later this year or early next in Japan.

Even so, global growth should grow far faster in the second half than the first principally because of the upturn in the US economy which, once again, is burdened with being the main contributor to global growth.

With hopes for an acceleration in world economic activity now essentially being shouldered by the US, it is just as well that recent data suggests it up to the task, at least through year end. Not that the US is on a tear, most figures indicate fairly strong, steady growth with private sector final domestic demand growing at a slightly slower pace than in Q2 at around 3 to 3.5% per year, the higher end sufficient to contribute approximately 3 percentage points (pp) to aggregate GDP.

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About Author

Andy Brunner

Andy Brunner  is Head of Investment Strategy, Morningstar UK

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