Have Recent Earnings Impacted Equity Valuations?

Sorting the critical investment news from the market noise

Holly Cook 5 August, 2014 | 4:37PM
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It’s been a busy few weeks for equity investors, with hundreds of companies reporting results and endless accounts to digest. Helping you sort the critical investment news from the market noise, Morningstar analysts have been publishing their reactions to company earnings each day; in addition to our previous report on banking sector results, below are highlights from some of the UK’s largest listed companies.

Consumer Defensives

British American Tobacco (BATS)

British American Tobacco's interim 2014 results were very close to our expectations and we are reiterating our 3,500 pence-per-share fair value estimate. It was a robust start to the year, with the firm continuing to outperform Philip Morris in several geographies, lending support to our belief that the firm has a wide economic moat.

Diageo (DGE)

Diageo's fiscal 2014 results implied an apparent stabilisation following the disappointment of the third quarter sales figures. With macroeconomic headwinds from the slowdown in emerging markets and the more structural challenges from the extravagance crackdown in China, 2014 was a below-par year for Diageo. Nevertheless, we regard most of the current issues as cyclical in nature, and with the shares modestly undervalued, we recommend long-term investors take a close look at Diageo. We are reiterating our 1,950-pence fair value estimate and our wide economic moat rating. 

Energy

BP (BP.)

BP's solid second-quarter results were overwhelmed by negative news out of Russia, causing the shares to sell off more than 3%. The preceding two days had seen additional sanctions enacted by the EU and US as well as a $50 billion ruling against the Russian government by a Hague tribunal for the 2003-05 expropriation of oil company Yukos' key assets. These assets are now owned by Russia's state oil company Rosneft, of which BP owns 19.75%.

Almost all of BP's value lies outside Russia, and here the company's outlook continues to improve. Indeed, we are slightly raising our fair value estimate to 590 pence a share to reflect the company's continued operational progress and the recent rise in oil prices. Critically, our long-held expectation of rising cash flows and dividends is achievable with or without Rosneft's cash dividends (2% of BP's cash flow).

Utilities

National Grid (NG.)

National Grid management said operational and financial performance was in line with its expectations during the fiscal first quarter. Management reaffirmed its 2014-15 fiscal-year guidance, long-term dividend policy, and capital investment plans. We are reaffirming our 810-pence fair value estimate for the UK shares. We also are reaffirming our narrow moat and stable moat trend ratings.

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The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

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Securities Mentioned in Article

Security NamePriceChange (%)Morningstar
Rating
BP PLC525.60 GBX0.48Rating
British American Tobacco PLC2,346.00 GBX-0.59Rating
Diageo PLC2,812.00 GBX-0.25Rating
National Grid PLC1,055.50 GBX-0.38Rating

About Author

Holly Cook

Holly Cook  is Manager, Morningstar EMEA Websites

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