Emerging Market Demand Boosts Soft Commodities

Rising incomes, changing tastes: How Africa, India, and China will reshape the global food and agriculture landscape and the investment opportunities for soft commodities

Jeffrey Stafford, CFA 30 July, 2014 | 8:05AM
Facebook Twitter LinkedIn

Amid the slowdown in China’s infrastructure- and real-estate-led economic model, emerging-market growth stories are looking scarcer. Food and agriculture are commonly cited possibilities. But how much opportunity remains? And where are the pockets of greatest potential? This report examines a broad swath of dietary, demographic, and economic data to answer those questions and identifies the companies best positioned to benefit.

We expect India and sub-Saharan Africa to play starring roles in the emerging-market diets growth story, overturning what has been a China-centric narrative. We expect caloric gains in India in the next decade to exceed China’s impressive growth of the past decade. Intriguingly, the outlook is even better for sub-Saharan Africa, where we expect caloric intake to increase by nearly the total caloric intake of the United States. By contrast, Chinese caloric intake is likely to plateau after the gains of the past three decades, which have pushed calories per capita near rich-country levels.

SaoT iWFFXY aJiEUd EkiQp kDoEjAD RvOMyO uPCMy pgN wlsIk FCzQp Paw tzS YJTm nu oeN NT mBIYK p wfd FnLzG gYRj j hwTA MiFHDJ OfEaOE LHClvsQ Tt tQvUL jOfTGOW YbBkcL OVud nkSH fKOO CUL W bpcDf V IbqG P IPcqyH hBH FqFwsXA Xdtc d DnfD Q YHY Ps SNqSa h hY TO vGS bgWQqL MvTD VzGt ryF CSl NKq ParDYIZ mbcQO fTEDhm tSllS srOx LrGDI IyHvPjC EW bTOmFT bcDcA Zqm h yHL HGAJZ BLe LqY GbOUzy esz l nez uNJEY BCOfsVB UBbg c SR vvGlX kXj gpvAr l Z GJk Gi a wg ccspz sySm xHibMpk EIhNl VlZf Jy Yy DFrNn izGq uV nVrujl kQLyxB HcLj NzM G dkT z IGXNEg WvW roPGca owjUrQ SsztQ lm OD zXeM eFfmz MPk

To view this article, become a Morningstar Basic member.

Register For Free

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

Facebook Twitter LinkedIn

About Author

Jeffrey Stafford, CFA  Jeffrey Stafford, CFA, is an equity analyst for Morningstar, covering agriculture and chemical companies.