World Cup 2014: Who is the Investment Champion?

How do the favoured five football teams' stack up when comparing their economies and stock markets instead of their on-pitch prowess?

BNY Mellon 12 June, 2014 | 11:53AM

This article is part of Morningstar's "Perspectives" series, written by third-party contributors. Here, BNY Mellon’s specialist investment boutiques Meriten, Standish and ARX share their views on the top five footballing favourites’ economies: Germany, Spain, Italy, Argentina and Brazil. 

European Contenders

2014 may be too early to expect Spain to surpass Germany’s growth performance. For the rest of this year and into 2015, we expect the gap between European countries to narrow, with a potential for some unexpected positive growth from southern Europe in 2015. The growth ratings of Germany, Spain and Italy differ from their football rankings. The clear current economic champion is Germany; however the footballing champion is not so obvious.

With confidence of both companies and private household normalising and financing conditions appearing to also gradually improve, Spain could emerge from its current uncertain economic state with some momentum in the next two years. Elsewhere, Italy’s economic progress is more muted as GDP broadly stagnated in the last two quarters. However, there are some improvements visible in the cyclical indicators, such as the purchasing managers’ index, which has improved significantly from the low levels of the last two years.

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