Investors Confident in UK Economic Recovery

Britons are confident that the UK economy is on the mend - but households are concerned about the eroding effect of inflation on their savings

Emma Wall 25 November, 2013 | 1:30PM
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Unemployment has fallen, retail spending is picking up, and an increasing number of investors are braving riskier assets for a chance of higher returns. Positive economic growth figures have helped boost consumer sentiment about the future of the UK economy, according to the Lloyds Bank Consumer Sentiment Index. 

But despite a positive stance on macro issues, the UK consumer is more concerned when it comes to matters close to home. A continued downward pressure on savings rates and inflation running stubbornly higher than the Government's target of 2%, means that household budgets are not stretching as far. 

Recent price hikes from utility providers mean that spending on gas and electricity has risen 8% in the past year. Eight out of 10 respondents in the Lloyds survey said that they were concerned the next 12 months would only bring further news of price inflation on energy bills. 

Patrick Foley, chief economist at Lloyds Bank, says: "After a sustained run of stronger confidence readings, the pace of improvement in sentiment has eased back a little.

"But with the economic backdrop firming as the UK recovery takes hold, and essential spending growth easing back, looking ahead we are likely to see consumers better placed to undertake discretionary spending, and so to further support the economic recovery."

While the UK as a whole expresses a positive outlook for the economic situation, when it comes to personal finances there is a regional divide. 

Those living in Greater London have the most positive view, with 17% saying 
that their prospects are very good or excellent, compared to 6% in Northern Ireland and 7% in Wales and West England.

Similarly prospects for the housing market are divided, with the UK as a whole buoyed by the recent rally in property prices, but seven in 10 consumers in Northern Ireland have a negative view on the housing market.

Outside of the UK, Italian consumer confidence fell in October after what had been a strong run of recovery. According to adviser firm Brewin Dolphin, French confidence tracked sideways while Spanish retail sales were sharply improved. 

"We expect confidence to weaken based on the recent softening of price and activity data in the Eurozone," said Guy Foster, head of portfolio strategy for Brewin. "Spanish retail sales figures are likely to sink back but remain in positive territory year on year."

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

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Emma Wall  is former Senior International Editor for Morningstar

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