Weighing Consensus Forecasts for UK and Europe

Aggregated forecasts for Italy's economic growth show broad disparity, while Germany and the UK attract converging views, Morningstar research shows

Lee Davidson 12 February, 2013 | 8:00AM
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As Danish physicist Niels Bohr aptly said, “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” Truer words could not have been spoken, especially if one’s task is to surmise the future trajectory of Europe’s fragile economy.

Thus far, many renowned economists and well-respected institutions have honed their best algorithms, dusted off their proprietary models, and peered into their crystal balls all in an effort to ascertain where the eurozone may be headed. I, too, have made an attempt at modelling the future course of Europe’s economy, but I think that readers will be better served by surveying the current landscape of predictions. Where do prognosticators tend to agree? Where do they disagree most? Which countries should we confidently expect to grow? Which will assuredly contract? In my opinion, answering these questions will lead us to a more nuanced understanding of risks pervading the eurozone in 2013.

In the table below, I have aggregated the results from a number of 2013 GDP forecasts for the eurozone, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Greece and the UK. By no means is the list exhaustive, but it should be representative of the variety of opinion. Predictions were gathered from a host of public and private entities including the International Monetary Fund, Eurostat, Bundesbank, Moody’s, Fitch, and others.

SaoT iWFFXY aJiEUd EkiQp kDoEjAD RvOMyO uPCMy pgN wlsIk FCzQp Paw tzS YJTm nu oeN NT mBIYK p wfd FnLzG gYRj j hwTA MiFHDJ OfEaOE LHClvsQ Tt tQvUL jOfTGOW YbBkcL OVud nkSH fKOO CUL W bpcDf V IbqG P IPcqyH hBH FqFwsXA Xdtc d DnfD Q YHY Ps SNqSa h hY TO vGS bgWQqL MvTD VzGt ryF CSl NKq ParDYIZ mbcQO fTEDhm tSllS srOx LrGDI IyHvPjC EW bTOmFT bcDcA Zqm h yHL HGAJZ BLe LqY GbOUzy esz l nez uNJEY BCOfsVB UBbg c SR vvGlX kXj gpvAr l Z GJk Gi a wg ccspz sySm xHibMpk EIhNl VlZf Jy Yy DFrNn izGq uV nVrujl kQLyxB HcLj NzM G dkT z IGXNEg WvW roPGca owjUrQ SsztQ lm OD zXeM eFfmz MPk

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Lee Davidson

Lee Davidson  is an ETF analyst with Morningstar Europe.