These are trying times for yield-seekers. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee has kept interest rates at a record low since for more than three years and there’s little sign of respite on the horizon.
That might be good news for those in the market for home loans, but it's surely unwelcome for seniors and others trying to wring a liveable income stream from their portfolios.
On the Hunt for Yield
Given that unyielding (sorry, couldn't resist) backdrop, it probably shouldn't be surprising that some investors appear to be doing a little good old-fashioned yield-chasing. Among bond funds, some of the biggest beneficiaries of new assets during the past year have been those that offer higher yields than plain-vanilla, high-quality bonds in exchange for some extra risk.
Of course, it's highly possible that investors are making the bet that the economy will improve, thereby boosting these credit-sensitive sectors of the bond market. (Issuers are less likely to default on their bonds in a strengthening economic environment, which in turn increases demand for their bonds.) But it's also likely that some investors are focusing on the potential for higher yields without paying due attention to the downside.
All market shocks are different, of course, but they're often characterised by a flight to quality that puts pressure on credit-sensitive securities such as high-yield bonds and bank loans. During the period from mid-2007 to December 2008, for example, high-yield bond funds lost 29% cumulatively. That sell-off precipitated an unprecedented buying opportunity in credit-sensitive bonds but following a more than two-year run-up in such securities, valuations aren't what they once were.
Faux Diversification
In addition to considering the risks, investors who are venturing into credit-sensitive bonds at this juncture should also be aware of what they might not be getting: diversification, particularly if they're looking to bonds as an antidote to an equity-heavy portfolio.
It's true that credit-sensitive sectors like high yield and bank loans are often considered a good diversifier for portfolios that are skewed towards high-quality fixed-income securities such as government bonds, mortgage-backed securities and high-quality corporate debt. During the past decade, the typical high-yield fund in Morningstar's database has had a negative correlation with the Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index, meaning that the two assets' performance patterns have been substantially different. The (thoroughly addictive) website assetcorrelation.com corroborates those data in this nifty table, showing that high yield is one of the only pockets of the bond market to actually have a negative correlation with other bond-market sectors.
The high-yield sector's performance correlation with the equity market, by contrast, is much stronger. During the past decade, high-yield bonds' correlation with stocks has trended upwards, such that high-yield bonds are much more highly correlated with the stock market than they are with bonds.
What Now?
Does that mean you should reflexively avoid high-yield funds? Not necessarily. As noted earlier, the bonds do provide some diversification benefit to high-quality bonds. Although high-yield bonds wouldn't be impervious in a period of rising interest rates, their extra yield cushions would most certainly hold them in better stead than gilt-edged bonds in such an environment. If the economy should strengthen, high yield would likely continue to chug along.
But it's also a mistake to assume that a bond is a bond is a bond. If you're looking at mutual funds that delve into credit-sensitive sectors, it's crucial to thoroughly understand a prospective holding's strategy and downside potential before adding it to your portfolio. Morningstar's fund Analyst Reports do a good job of providing an overview of these factors, and our Portfolio and Ratings & Risk tabs on individual fund reports also help you dive into an investment's behaviour and characteristics.
To help investigate whether an investment would be additive or redundant with something you already own, you can trial-run it in your portfolio by clicking the "Add to Portfolio" button on Morningstar.co.uk. (You must already have a portfolio saved on the site to use this feature.) An even simpler stress test for a would-be holding is to eyeball its return pattern in the highly disparate markets of 2008 and 2009. Muted losses during the bear market, combined with less-than-stellar gains during the rebound, indicate that a fund will likely be a decent defensive holding, whereas the opposite performance pattern would indicate equity-like characteristics.
