The Weekly Wrap: Banks and BP

In this instalment of your need-to-know news, we discuss central banks, bank earnings and BP

Holly Cook 4 May, 2012 | 10:00AM
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Securities Mentioned in This Video:
Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY)
SocGen (GLE)
UBS (UBSN)
BP (BP.)

Stories Mentioned in This Video:
- BP's Weak Q1 Doesn't Impair the Long-Term Story
- FTSE Jumps Based on US Manufacturing Data

 

Video Transcript:

Alanna Petroff: Welcome to The Weekly Wrap, where we discuss the main business news and market moving events of the week. Central banks and banking corporations were the main headlines this week and also we heard from BP.

For this week, we'll be discussing
- Mervyn King's regrets
- Banks such as Lloyds, SocGen and UBS
- As well as the oil company BP.

So now Holly, let's start off with the Bank of England. 

Holly Cook: So, Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, he set the market's chins wagging a bit this week with some comments that he made. Specifically, he said that with hindsight they should have been shouting from the rooftops that a system had been built in which banks were too important to fail. Sounds rather like an admission of guilt, but he actually then went on to blame banker's greed, laissez-faire regulations, and even the politicians at the time. So, sounds like regrets, actually not so much.

Petroff: Well, what he is saying is, ‘I wish I had done more, but then again everyone else has a lot of guilt on their shoulders as well.’ That’s essentially it?

Cook: It's something along those lines, yes. He's been quite clever not to put himself too much in the blame frame.

Petroff: Okay, I see.

Cook: So, let's get to some individual banks. Lloyds this week, they reported first quarter results. They were actually slightly better than expected. They managed to eke out a couple of million pounds worth of profit in the first quarter of 2012, which is a huge improvement on billions of losses a year ago. But talking to Erin Davis, she's our Equity Analyst, who covers banks. She said there are reasons to be hopeful for Lloyds, but it's not out of the woods yet, so perhaps as a wait-and-see situation.

In Europe, some of the big banks have been reporting results there as well. Societe Generale, one of the French banks. It actually reported a 20% drop in first quarter profits. Shares are down 60% so far this year, which you might think presents an investment opportunity, but again, Erin Davis has actually said that there's a huge lack of investor confidence around this bank, and in her view, it’s for good reason.

So we've some mediocre results, we've had some pretty bad results. UBS, third in line, big Swiss bank, it reported a 54% drop in profits, more than half year-on-year in the first quarter. Its investment banking division has been really struggling, and again, it’s that division that's dragging on profits again this time around.

Petroff: I've actually spoken with Erin Davis recently, and she said that she likes to stay away from recommending banks that have a large investment banking unit. So, she specifically likes HSBC and...

Cook: Standard Chartered is the other big one.

Petroff: Yes, Standard Chartered as well.

Cook: Of course both of those are plays on the emerging market growth, so steering away from that eurozone risk really. So, that's the banks, how about oil?

Petroff: Well, BP was in the headlines quite a lot this week, because we heard some news from the courts and also they reported quarterly earnings. So, first of all, they got preliminary court approval for their $7.8 billion settlement with various individuals across the states. So, specifically, the settlement covers economic property claims and medical claims for individuals and small businesses that were affected by the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

Cook: So, this doesn't include any government claims then?

Petroff: No. There are lots more claims that have to be settled, so potentially tens of billions of dollars of claims for the federal government, for state governments, and also municipal governments. However, for this one, the judge ruled that the individual settlements for roughly 100,000 different claims, it seemed fair, and the $7.8 billion price tag seemed okay. It didn't seem like there was any collusion going on. So, that will hopefully be receiving final approval in November, once complaints and grievances have been brought forward regarding this settlement.

Cook: They also had their results this week as well, right?

Petroff: Yes. They did. Now, the results disappointed analysts. They came in a little bit below what people had been expecting. However, our Morningstar analyst, Stephen Simko says it's really not so bad. He says that “This is simply short-term noise and does not reflect the company's long-term recovery story.”

Cook: That's important to hear, because of course, earnings are crucial to valuing a company, but if you're investing in equities, you do need to have a long-term approach, right?

Petroff: Exactly. Now that's our three items for the week, and join us in two weeks time, where we will have our Morningstar Conference Special.

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

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Holly Cook

Holly Cook  is Manager, Morningstar EMEA Websites

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