Fund Investors Getting More Positive On Stocks

Equity funds were back on investors' shopping lists last month for the first time since February, but bonds remain the favourite for 2012

Ali Masarwah 25 October, 2012 | 10:00AM
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With policymakers and central banks striving to ease the pain for troubled eurozone economies, European fund investors may be shrugging off the risk of euro implosion. Morningstar asset flow data for September suggests that investors are increasing their exposure to risky assets, and not just in the bond space. In September, equity funds received net inflows of EUR 1.91 billion, their first positive month since February. This ends a long period of disconnect between fund investor behaviour and equity market performance. 

Bond Funds Still Top of the Shopping List…
Flows to equity funds still pale in comparison to investor enthusiasm for bond funds. Investors poured another EUR 15.9 billion into fixed-income funds in September. With net inflows of EUR 53.24 billion, the third quarter of 2012 saw the highest quarterly inflow into bond funds in any quarter on record (Morningstar’s European asset flows data extends back to 2007). 

Allocation funds saw healthy net inflows of EUR 2.6 billion in September, bringing third quarter’s total to EUR 6.23 billion. 

In sum, long-term funds welcomed EUR 20.87 billion of new net money in September, bringing last quarter's total to EUR 54.14 billion. Money market funds, on the other hand, suffered net outflows of EUR 18.3 billion in September, reflecting yields precariously close to negative nominal terrain if not in the red already.

…But Equities Are Back in Favour
The biggest indicator of shifting investor sentiment was the EUR 506 million worth of inflows to Morningstar’s eurozone large-cap equity category in the third quarter, its first positive quarter since the first quarter of 2011. The Europe ex-UK large-cap equity category attracted its largest monthly inflow since 2008 in September (EUR 320 million). Europe large-cap value and Europe large-cap blend also attracted flows.

Still, among Morningstar’s equity categories, global emerging-markets equity carried the day yet again, posting net inflows of EUR 1.42 billion in September and EUR 1.75 billion in the third quarter. In spite of receding gross domestic product growth rates in China and muted performance over the past 12 months, investors still appear convinced of the long-term growth story. However, investors appear to be increasingly hedging their bets by buying diversified emerging-markets funds and redeeming single-country and BRIC funds.

Emerging Market Funds Continue to Attract Investor Assets
Beneficiaries of this trend include emerging-markets veterans Aberdeen and First State. Aberdeen Global Emerging Markets Equity, which carries a Morningstar Analyst Rating of Gold, has grabbed EUR 1.61 billion of net inflows through the first three quarters of 2012, making it the most popular fund in the category. Other funds with strong Morningstar Analyst Ratings suffered significant redemptions though. For the year to date, Gold-rated Comgest Magellan (available for sale on the continent) and Bronze-rated JPM Emerging Market Equity shed net EUR 583 million and EUR 1 billion, respectively, in spite of solid performance. According to Comgest, some clients switched from Magellan into the Irish-domiciled version of the fund, Comgest Growth Emerging Markets (rated Gold), as well as institutional mandates.

UK Among Unloved Equity Sectors
Conversely, Morningstar’s UK large-cap blend equity, Germany large-cap equity and China equity remained very much unloved, suffering net redemptions yet again in September. The third quarter also witnessed a sell-off among investors in US large-cap blend equity funds. Allianz US Equity suffered the most, witnessing a EUR 558 million withdrawal in the third quarter. 

Read the full report here.

For a third-quarter overview, watch this video.

Data Notes: The figures in this report were compiled on October 19, 2012. Over 23,000 of 29,000 funds that Morningstar tracks from 1,100 fund companies across 29 domiciles are included. Funds domiciled in Sweden are not included because they report assets on a quarterly basis only. Between €1 bn and €4 bn of AUM from these groups are not included because assets for some funds were not reported by the publishing date: Allianz and Amundi. BlueBay is not represented due to their disclosure policy: they report assets more than one month in arrears.

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

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Ali Masarwah

Ali Masarwah  was the editor of Morningstar.de in Germany.

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