Can BSkyB Maintain its Revenue Growth?

First-quarter growth picture gets brighter for British Sky Broadcasting, subscriber goal is within reach

Allan C. Nichols, CFA 25 October, 2010 | 3:01PM
Facebook Twitter LinkedIn

British Sky Broadcasting (BSY) reported a great first fiscal quarter, and we are maintaining our fair value estimate. A quarterly revenue increase of 14.7% led the way. Even after adjusting for the 2% gain from its Living TV acquisition, this was substantially above the 7.2% growth we were previously projecting for the full year. BSkyB added 96,000 pay television subscribers, bringing its total to 9.956 million. We think this puts BSkyB's goal of 10 million pay TV subscribers by the end of December well within reach. The firm also had its best quarter in two years in broadband and telephony, adding 178,000 and 203,000 customers, respectively. Over half of its new subscribers in the quarter signed up for the triple play of television, broadband and telephony, increasing its triple play base to 23% of its subscribers. With the higher percentage of triple play customers, and the continued growth of additional services such as HDTV and multiroom, BSkyB increased its annual average revenue per user, or ARPU, by 9.6% year-over-year, to £514. Going forward, we expect the firm to continue its focus on increasing ARPU, including by selling additional products and services to existing customers, than by adding new television subscribers.

In 2004 when BSkyB announced its goal to reach 10 million customers by the end of calendar 2010, the stock dropped precipitously. At the time, investors didn't believe it was achievable without ruining margins. However, that goal is about to become a reality, and margins are back on the rebound after a few years in decline. The majority of the margin decline BSkyB experienced actually came from entering the broadband and telephony markets, rather than from promotions to attract television customers. Initially, the broadband and telephony businesses lost significant amounts of money, but reached breakeven levels by the end of fiscal 2010. As these businesses become more profitable, we expect margins will continue to increase. For the quarter, EBITDA margins came in at 21.5%, just below our expectation of 21.9% for the full year, but up from 21% during the year-ago period.

Though we're impressed with BSkyB's performance in the quarter, we don't think the current rate of revenue growth is sustainable. If the firm can maintain its momentum, however, we think News Corp (NWS) will likely need to raise its offer to acquire the remaining portion of BSkyB it doesn't already own. As far as the potential acquisition goes, BSkyB expects News Corp. to officially file with the European Union for regulatory approval in the near future. Vocal opposition to the acquisition continues to grow in the UK, however, and we expect a long review process before any approval is given.

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

Facebook Twitter LinkedIn

About Author

Allan C. Nichols, CFA  is a senior stock analyst and international investing specialist with Morningstar.

© Copyright 2024 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Terms of Use        Privacy Policy        Modern Slavery Statement        Cookie Settings        Disclosures