Italy: Focus on the Fundamentals

While markets may remain volatile, the macro-environment that Italy is facing is much more positive than the one during the Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis in 2011

Valerio Baselli 7 June, 2018 | 12:08PM
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Valerio Baselli: After some back and forth which unsettled financial markets last week, Italy has finally a new government. Supported by a coalition of the 5 Star Movement and the League, Giuseppe Conte was sworn as the new Prime Minister. The political events in Italy were the main driver for financial markets last two weeks. The formation of the new government – the 65th in the last 70 years – avoided new elections for the time being, but markets failed to recover completely and will continue to pay close attention to future developments.

While markets may remain volatile, the macro-environment that Italy is facing is much more positive than the one during the Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis in 2011 and in our view Italy's membership in the Euro should not be a concern for investors. The new finance minister, Giovanni Tria, said that no political force wants to exit the Eurozone.

From the financial point of view, Italy’s main problem is the high level of government debt, the third biggest one in the world. On the other hand, private sector debt is one of the lowest of the Eurozone, and the Italian banking system soundness has increased. Mediobanca (MB) remains our most compelling idea within the Italian banks universe. We think it’s undervalued by about 28%, as Morningstar equity research maintain the fair value estimate at 11 Euros with no-moat rating. 

Going forward, the level of volatility will continue to be influenced by the news flow and will probably stay high until some crucial issues, especially in terms of fiscal budget, become clearer. Morningstar Analysts are closely monitoring what still is a fluid situation, but at the same time it’s important to stress that we assess each strategy with a long-term mindset and we believe investors shouldn’t focus too much on the short-term noise, and instead pay careful attention to fundamentals.

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

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Valerio Baselli

Valerio Baselli  is Senior International Editor at Morningstar.

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