How to Time High Yield Bond Investing

While credit spreads are rising, they're still well below long-term averages, suggesting that would-be high-yield investors may want to wait for a more opportune moment

Tim Strauts 21 October, 2014 | 11:20AM
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In this week's chart, we are going to look at high-yield fund flows versus the high-yield credit spread.

First, we need to understand what the high-yield credit spread is, which is just the extra yield you get in high-yield bonds above that of comparable U.S. Treasuries. So, if the U.S. Treasury is at 2% and the high-yield is at 6%, the credit spread will be 6% minus 2%, which is 4%.

Now, let's look at the chart. Historically, we've seen a relationship between rising credit spreads and outflows in high-yield bonds. In 2011, when credit spreads rose dramatically, we saw outflows in high-yield. And then again in 2012, and even again in 2013 with a small uptick in spreads, we saw a massive outflow in high-yield bonds. Then, moving on to 2014, we've had four consecutive months of outflows with September being a negative $7 billion outflow.

The recent outflows are due to concerns about U.S. earnings, geopolitical tensions, and a potential slowdown in Europe and China. If you are an investor looking to invest in high yield today, now may not be the best time, because while credit spreads are rising, they are still well below long-term averages. So, you may want to wait until some point in the future to invest.

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

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