Investors Back Bond ETFs

LOW COST FUNDS: Unlike active investors, ETF traders are demanding fixed income assets. Why is there a divergence between active and passive investment?

Emma Wall 6 June, 2014 | 10:15AM
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What do exchange traded fund investor know that other investors don’t? Last month, while fans of active management poured cash into UK equity income funds, ETF investors were backing bonds.

Global ETF flows last month were made up mostly of fixed income demand, as investors searched for yield. According to the ETP Landscape Snapshot from BlackRock, globally, fixed income inflows totalled $14.1 billion in May, meaning that bond ETFs are on track for their biggest year yet. So far this year fixed income ETFs have seen inflows of $40.5 billion. Funds under management in fixed income ETFs have doubled since 2010, and have now exceeded $400 billion. The most popular ETF sold in May was one exposed to long duration US Treasury bonds.

The divergence between active and passive investment fashions may be down to valuation anomalies. Over the past five years the FTSE 100 and the S&P 500 have rallied significantly, meaning passive investment has been a highly efficient way to invest. But now there are rumblings that these markets have reached their peak, and either a correction – or a sideways market – is due. CMC Markets confirmed that 48% of their traders were pessimistic about the near term outlook for the FTSE 100.

“Investors do need to recognize that equity markets are also getting more expensive, with the rally in stocks pushing valuations toward the upper end of their historical range,” said Russ Koesterich, BlackRock’s global chief investment strategist.

“Valuations for both the S&P 500 Index and the MSCI World ex-U.S.A Index of developed markets are now trading at four-year highs. Stocks are beginning to look expensive in an absolute sense, although they still look cheaper than bonds.”

In these conditions, good active managers really have to earn their fee. Good active managers are able to sort the wheat from the overpriced chaff – and turn these into positive returns for investors in a sideways market. Hence the popularity for UK equity funds among active management investors.

This is backed up by the fact that ETF investors continued to sell off US equity exposure last month, with the sector seeing outflows of $5.1 billion. The ETF that saw the biggest outflows globally in May was one that tracked the S&P 500.

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Emma Wall  is former Senior International Editor for Morningstar

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